The United Kingdom and Germany have announced that they will team up to produce a “deep precision strike” weapon with a range of over 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles). At this point, it’s unclear whether a ballistic or cruise missile — or perhaps both types — will be the preferred solution. However, the project reflects growing ambitions among European NATO members to field long-range strike capabilities, faced by a growing Russian threat on the alliance’s eastern flank.
The announcement about the new weapon was made yesterday in Berlin by German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius and his British counterpart John Healey. It came ahead of today’s meeting in Rome with defense ministers from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland — the so-called European Group of Five (E5).
The plan to develop a deep precision strike weapon is the most ambitious development so far under the bilateral defense cooperation pact, the Trinity House Agreement, that the United Kingdom and Germany signed last October. You can read our full analysis of that partnership here.
According to a statement yesterday from the U.K. Ministry of Defense, the new weapon “will be among the most advanced systems ever designed by the United Kingdom, to safeguard the British public and reinforce NATO deterrence, while boosting the U.K. and European defense sectors.”
A timeline for development of the new missile has not been announced, and it’s unclear how much the program could cost.
While the United Kingdom and Germany working together on a project of this kind is unprecedented, the capabilities the countries are seeking to develop and field are less surprising.
Russia’s extensive use of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukraine has highlighted a major gap in the inventories of many European NATO countries.
In fact, among European NATO members, only Turkey possesses a conventional ground-launched missile with a range of more than 186 miles — the indigenously developed Bora short-range ballistic missile. Meanwhile, Russia has various ground-launched systems with this kind of performance, able to carry conventional or nuclear warheads. This is before taking into account Russia’s air-launched and maritime long-range strike capabilities, which also vastly outmatch their NATO counterparts in Europe.
When the Trinity House Agreement was signed, it was stated that the two countries would work together to “rapidly develop” new extended deep strike weapons. No more details were provided at the time, but it was stated that the weapon or weapons would be expected to fly further and attack targets with greater precision than the Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile used by the U.K. Royal Air Force and others. Considering the Storm Shadow is already extremely precise, it’s not immediately obvious how such an improvement would be secured.
Previous reports had suggested that the British were looking at developing a strike weapon that would have a range of about 2,000 miles, which would allow it to reach Moscow after a launch from the United Kingdom. The weapon was said to be a deterrent to Russian tactical nuclear missiles, which are being fielded in increasingly advanced and long-reaching forms, including in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea. However, even the 2,000-kilometer range of the deep precision strike weapon would allow the Russian capital to be struck after launch from almost any location in Germany.
Under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, signed by the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan in 1987, Russia and the United States were prohibited from deploying nuclear or conventionally armed ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 310 and 3,420 miles.
U.S. President Donald Trump formally withdrew from the treaty in 2019, ostensibly over Russia’s fielding of a prohibited ground-based cruise missile system, the 9M729 (SSC-8 Screwdriver), something the Kremlin continues to deny it has done. Since then, however, long-range strike capabilities are very much part of the defense landscape in Europe once again.
Last summer, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland launched the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) — later joined by Sweden and the United Kingdom. Once again, this effort calls for the development of a new capability for “long-range strikes,” although the type of weapon being pursued is not mentioned. As with the Anglo-German program, it’s not specified whether ELSA is looking to develop a cruise or a ballistic missile.
Previous announcements state that the French-led ELSA project intended to provide a missile with a range of between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometers (621 and 1,243 miles) and that it should be in service by the 2030s.
Many of the similar developments in this field have focused on ground-launched long-range strike capabilities, with the United States very much at the forefront.
The U.S. has announced that it will deploy to Germany, on a rotational basis, starting next year, a range of advanced ground-launched weapons. These include the SM-6 multi-purpose missile and Tomahawk cruise missile, as well as “developmental hypersonic weapons.” The latter is a reference to the Dark Eagle and potentially others, like the Operational Fires (OpFires) ground-launched hypersonic missile system and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missile, both of which are also now in development.
It is also possible that the Anglo-German effort might result in a weapon for launch from aircraft, ships, or even submarines.
Of these options, a ship-launched cruise missile might be the most practical.
The Royal Navy already operates the U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile, launched from its nuclear-powered attack submarines. Recently, it’s been reported that Germany is also looking at acquiring Tomahawk to arm its forthcoming Type 127 frigates, although it could also be retrofitted on in-service German Navy surface combatants. Tomahawk, which is conventionally armed, has a range of around 1,000 miles with a 1,000-pound unitary warhead.
Tomahawk can be fired from the Mk 41 vertical launch system (VLS), found on most German frigate classes, while the U.K. Royal Navy is building two new classes of warship that will also have these launchers. The same VLS could also be an option for the deep precision strike weapon.
In terms of air-launched options, there will be a degree of commonality between the United Kingdom’s F-35B stealth fighters and the F-35As on order for Germany, although it’s questionable whether an air-launched cruise missile with this kind of range could be carried even externally by a Joint Strike Fighter. Certainly, it would be too large to fit internally in the stealth fighter’s weapons bays, especially the F-35B, which has less space for internal stores. A more suitable air-launch platform might be the Eurofighter Typhoon, operated by both countries and already proven to be capable of carrying heavier external stores, notably in the shape of the Storm Shadow.
If a cruise missile is the chosen path toward achieving the deep precision strike weapon, the two countries may select one with hypersonic performance, which would make it considerably harder for hostile air defenses to intercept. Germany and the United Kingdom are already working on hypersonic powerplants, with the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s Team Hypersonics (UK) program notably seeking to have a hypersonic weapon technology demonstrator ready by 2030. There is also the possibility that, from the British side, the effort could draw upon hypersonic missile research being undertaken as part of the trilateral Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security cooperation agreement.
Developing a new ballistic missile to fulfill the deep precision strike criteria is also a possibility, but it’s been many decades since either the United Kingdom or Germany were developing and producing these kinds of weapons.
Whether a cruise missile or a ballistic missile, the announcement about the new weapon does not mention the kind of warhead that it will carry. Recent developments suggest that a nuclear payload capability, even if a latent feature, should perhaps not be ruled out.
Currently, the United Kingdom maintains a submarine-based nuclear deterrent, based around Trident 2 D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Germany does not have its own nuclear weapons, but is supplied with U.S.-owned B61 thermonuclear bombs under the NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement.
Under U.S. President Donald Trump, there have been increasing discussions about the future of nuclear deterrence among European leaders, reflecting a deepening crisis in the transatlantic alliance. Before he took office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for talks with his British and French colleagues about European “nuclear sharing or at least nuclear security.” Meanwhile, France has reportedly looked at the possibility of deploying its own air-launched nuclear weapons to Germany in the future.
With these developments in mind, it’s certainly conceivable that the United Kingdom and Germany might consider a nuclear-armed deep precision strike weapon, especially if Germany begins to have doubts about the reliability of Washington in helping to secure its nuclear deterrent.
Overall, the joint deep precision strike reflects the growing push by both the United Kingdom and Germany to bolster European security, while at the same time driving economic growth.
As part of the burgeoning military cooperation between the two countries under the Trinity House Agreement, yesterday also saw the announcement of a joint procurement program for Sting Ray torpedoes to arm P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft. These are being procured by both the United Kingdom and Germany, which previously unveiled plans to operate their fleets closely together, to provide better anti-submarine warfare coverage of the critical North Atlantic region.
Since the agreement was signed in October, German crews have joined U.K. Royal Air Force personnel in flights on Poseidon aircraft.
Other elements of the Trinity House Agreement that have previously been announced include a new artillery gun barrel factory in the United Kingdom, a commitment to manufacturing Boxer armored vehicles in the United Kingdom, and a pledge to work jointly with undisclosed partners to integrate air defense systems “to better protect European airspace against the threat of long-range missiles.”
As for the Anglo-German effort to develop a new deep precision strike weapon, the details of what this will look like are still to be resolved. While this is very likely a longer-term initiative, it points again to a growing focus on long-range fire capabilities in Europe and may well ultimately have a significant effect on the strategic balance on the continent.
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